Analysis and Summary of Steel Coil Import and Export Situation in Azerbaijan over the Past 20 Years

Stage 1 (2005-2010): Dependence on Import Due to Infrastructure Building. In the early 21st century, use of Azerbaijan’s oil and gas resources is accompanied by the introduction of big infrastructure construction projects leading to an average annual increase of 8.3% in demand for steel coils. 

Yet the domestic steel sector was poor —iron ore was 100% imported from Ukraine, and coke had to be imported from Russia. This caused a surge in steel coil import from around 80,000 tons in 2005 to 150,000 tons in 2010, making imports more than 70% of total steel usage. Exports almost did not occur during this period, and only the small number of low-grade steel coils being transshipped to Central Asia via Georgian ports. Overall exports in this period exceeded 1,000 tons. Fluctuation Period (2011-2020): Geopolitical Shocks, Market Shifts. 

The fall in oil prices in 2014 led to a three-year fall in GDP in Azerbaijan and a low of 110,000 tons in 2016. A major breakthrough came on the export front: after domestic steel mills upgraded their technology in 2017, exports of steel coils exceeded 50,000 tons for the first time, and Iran (41%) and Turkey (32%) were core markets. One key turning point came in 2019: the EU imposed a 23.7% anti-dumping duty on its steel coils, causing exports to plummet by 17%. Firms urgently recalibrated their strategy to sell to countries along the Belt and Road Initiative, as alternative markets. That year, exports to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan increased 42%. Nonetheless, as of 2020 steel coil exports were at 43,000 tons despite the effects of the pandemic and imports rebounded to 130,000 tons driven by recovery from construction of infrastructure. Transformation Period (2021-2025): Optimization of Export Structure and Trade Balance

This increased in GDP growth of 28.4% for 2021 from an oil and gas price rebound, with steel coil imports at 160,000 tons. China's share of supply increased from 12% in 2015 to 15.9% in 2024. The qualitative jump on the exports side was strong: cumulative steel coil exports from January to June 2025 were 42,000 tons in value (US$36.07 million), that is 68 % higher than the same period from January to June 2019. There was a new monthly export peak last month of 13,800 tons in April alone. 

The share of high value-added cold-rolled thin and wide steel strip increased to 35 percent (from just 5 percent in 2010). Market diversification has produced major returns: exports to Iran have fallen to 28 per cent, along with entries like India and Egypt. Export to Southeast Asia has risen 120% in the last three years. Its import mix is also being fine-tuned, which is seeing a decrease in the share of supply from Russia to 13.3% by 2024 (from 22% in 2018), with China looking to buy coated steel coils that are cheaper than other sources. 

Resource Endowment and Policy Game: Key Lesson from the Last Twenty Years. The Paradox of Dependence and Breakthrough: Dependence on imported raw materials has historically limited the pace of industrial upgrading, but it has likewise forced multinationals to become increasingly active in regional markets, with exports expected to grow more than 50-times in 2025 compared to 2005. Key Policy Positioning: Logistics corridors under the Belt and Road Initiative (ex: Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Railway) have resulted in a 30% cost reduction in steel coil export transport. 

Key Challenges: Australia will replace Russia as world’s second-largest source of imports in 2024, and world steel price instability will continue to strain trade. Data Description. 

The main export data in this paper is taken from Metallurgical Information and Equipment Network and China Steel Network monthly statistics for 2025. Trends of import are calculated based on those of Azerbaijan State Statistics Committee and ADB sources. Early years records may have slight variances caused by variation in statistical caliber.