Analysis and Summary of Steel Coil Import and Export Situation in Azerbaijan over the Past 20 Years

1. Initial Stage (2005-2010): Import Dependence Driven by Infrastructure Construction

In the early 21st century, Azerbaijan, leveraging its oil and gas resources, launched large-scale infrastructure development, resulting in an average annual growth of 8.3% in demand for steel coils. However, the domestic steel industry was weak—iron ore was 100% imported from Ukraine, and coke had to be sourced from Russia. This led to a surge in steel coil imports from approximately 80,000 tons in 2005 to 150,000 tons in 2010, with imports accounting for over 70% of total steel consumption. Exports during this period were almost nonexistent, with only a small amount of low-grade steel coils being transshipped to Central Asia via Georgian ports, with annual exports exceeding 1,000 tons.

2. Fluctuation Period (2011-2020): Geopolitical Shocks and Market Shifts

The 2014 oil price plunge triggered a three-year decline in Azerbaijan's GDP, leading to a temporary low of 110,000 tons in 2016. However, a breakthrough occurred on the export side: after domestic steel mills upgraded their technology in 2017, steel coil exports exceeded 50,000 tons for the first time, with Iran (41%) and Turkey (32%) becoming core markets.

A major turning point occurred in 2019: the EU imposed a 23.7% anti-dumping duty on its steel coils, causing exports to plummet by 17%. Companies urgently adjusted their strategies, targeting countries along the Belt and Road Initiative as alternative markets. Exports to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan increased by 42% that year. By 2020, despite the impact of the pandemic, steel coil exports remained at 43,000 tons, while imports rebounded to 130,000 tons due to the recovery of infrastructure construction.

3. Transformation Period (2021-2025): Export Structure Optimization and Trade Balance

The rebound in oil and gas prices in 2021 drove GDP growth by 28.4%, and steel coil imports increased to 160,000 tons. China's share of supply rose from 12% in 2015 to 15.9% in 2024. Exports saw a qualitative leap: from January to June 2025, cumulative steel coil exports reached 42,000 tons, valued at US$36.07 million, a 68% increase over the same period in 2019. April alone saw a record monthly export peak of 13,800 tons. The proportion of high-value-added cold-rolled thin and wide steel strip increased to 35% (from only 5% in 2010).

Market diversification has yielded significant results: exports to Iran have fallen to 28%, with new markets such as India and Egypt added. Exports to Southeast Asia have increased by 120% over the past three years. The import structure is also being optimized, with Russia's share of supply falling from 22% in 2018 to 13.3% in 2024, with China shifting to sourcing more cost-effective coated steel coils.

4. Key Lessons from the Past Twenty Years: Resource Endowment and Policy Game

The Paradox of Dependence and Breakthrough: Dependence on imported raw materials has always constrained industrial upgrading, but it has also forced companies to deepen their presence in regional markets, with exports expected to increase over 50-fold in 2025 compared to 2005.

The Key Role of Policy: The development of logistics corridors under the Belt and Road Initiative (such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Railway) has reduced steel coil export transportation costs by 30%.

Future Challenges: Australia will replace Russia as the second-largest source of imports in 2024, and global steel price fluctuations will continue to impact trade stability.

5. Data Description

The core export data in this article comes from the 2025 monthly statistics of the Metallurgical Information and Equipment Network and China Steel Network. Import trends are compiled based on reports from the Azerbaijan State Statistics Committee and the ADB. Data from earlier years may have slight deviations due to adjustments in statistical caliber.