What is Hot Rolled Steel Coil and Its Price Trends in China in 2025

Understanding Hot Rolled Steel Coil (HRC)

Hot rolled steel coil (HRC) is a fundamental steel product manufactured by heating steel billets or slabs above their recrystallization temperature (typically over 1,700°F/927°C) and rolling them into thin, flat sheets. These sheets are then coiled for efficient storage, transportation, and further processing. Unlike cold-rolled steel, HRC has less precise dimensional accuracy but offers advantages in production speed and cost-effectiveness. Its surface retains a slightly rough texture due to rapid cooling after rolling, which is acceptable for structural applications where aesthetics are secondary to performance.

Key Applications

HRC is widely used across industries due to its durability and versatility:

1. Automotive Industry: Frames, chassis, and structural components benefit from HRC’s high tensile strength and impact resistance.

2. Construction: Bridges, buildings, and infrastructure projects rely on HRC for load-bearing structures.

3. Energy Sector: Pipes and tubes for oil/gas pipelines and HVAC systems leverage HRC’s pressure and corrosion resistance.

4. Manufacturing: Machinery, appliances, and industrial equipment use HRC for cost-effective, robust components.

Price Trends of Hot Rolled Steel Coil in China (2025)

China, the world’s largest steel producer, saw significant price fluctuations in HRC during 2025, driven by domestic demand, supply constraints, and global market dynamics.

Q1 2025: Oversupply Pressures Prices

In the first quarter, China’s HRC prices averaged US$558/MT, down from global benchmarks due to:

· Domestic Oversupply: Weak property sector demand and high inventory levels forced mills to lower prices.

· Export Competition: Aggressive pricing in international markets to offset soft domestic sales.

· Regional Variations: Northern China (e.g., Tangshan) saw prices rise slightly (1.0% month-on-month) due to higher capacity utilization (78%), while Southern China (Guangdong, Shanghai) faced oversupply, pushing rebar prices down 2.1%.

Mid-2025: Supply Cuts and Cost Pressures

By September 2025, prices rebounded to ¥3,444.9/ton (US$487/MT), driven by:

· Production Cuts: Steel mills reduced output (PMI production index at 48.0%, below the 50% threshold), tightening supply.

· Rising Input Costs: Increases in iron ore and coal prices pushed mills to raise ex-factory prices by ¥200–300/ton.

· Niche Demand: Premium products like zinc-aluminum-magnesium (ZAM) coated coils maintained higher prices (¥4,980–5,200/ton) for solar and agricultural machinery applications.

Q4 2025: Mixed Sentiment

By December 2025, HRC prices traded flat at US$907/MT (per CFD tracking), reflecting:

· Short-Term Stability: A 0.44% month-on-month decline but a 26.32% year-on-year increase, indicating long-term recovery.

· Global Influence: Chinese prices remained competitive compared to the US (1,212/MT)andGermany(806/MT), driven by cost advantages and export-oriented strategies.

Factors Influencing Chinese HRC Prices

1. Domestic Demand: Infrastructure spending and manufacturing activity directly impact prices.

2. Supply Dynamics: Production cuts or expansions by major mills (e.g., Baosteel, Ansteel) create volatility.

3. Export Policies: Tariffs and trade agreements with key markets (e.g., Southeast Asia, Europe) affect pricing strategies.

4. Raw Material Costs: Fluctuations in iron ore, coal, and energy prices influence production expenses.

Conclusion

Hot rolled steel coil remains a cornerstone of China’s industrial and construction sectors, with prices in 2025 reflecting a balance between domestic oversupply challenges and global demand recovery. While Q1 saw downward pressure, mid-year supply cuts and cost inflation drove a rebound, stabilizing by Q4. For stakeholders, monitoring regional production trends, export policies, and raw material costs is critical to navigating China’s HRC market.