Steel price trends as of September 2025

1. Key Price Movements

Hot-Rolled Coils (HRC): Prices rose by 3.5% month-on-month to ¥3,444.9/ton (as of August 2025, per National Bureau of Statistics), driven by seasonal demand recovery in manufacturing and infrastructure projects. Major mills like Baosteel and Ansteel raised HRC ex-factory prices by ¥200–300/ton in September, citing tightening supply and rising input costs.

Rebar: Prices declined by 1.2% to ¥3,218.2/ton due to weak real estate construction activity, despite fiscal stimulus measures. However, regional disparities persisted: prices in Chengdu (Sichuan) stabilized at ¥4,980/ton for 1.5mm ZAM-coated rebar, reflecting localized infrastructure demand.

Cold-Rolled Coils (CRC): Prices increased by 0.3% to ¥3,890/ton, supported by automotive sector demand and mill production cuts.

2. Regional Price Variations

Northern China (Tangshan, Hebei): HRC prices averaged ¥3,320/ton, up 1.0% month-on-month, driven by steel mill capacity utilization rates of 78% (vs. 72% nationally).

Southern China (Guangdong, Shanghai): Rebar prices fell 2.1% to ¥3,150/ton due to oversupply and slower export orders.

Inland Regions (Chengdu, Chongqing): Zinc-aluminum-magnesium (ZAM) coated steel coils maintained premium pricing (¥4,980–5,200/ton) for solar energy and agricultural machinery applications, reflecting niche demand resilience.

3. Drivers of Price Fluctuations

Supply Constraints: Steel mill production cuts in September (PMI production index at 48.0%, below the 50% threshold) reduced market supply, particularly for industrial-grade steel.

Raw Material Costs: Coking coal prices rebounded by 4.5% to ¥1,439.3/ton, while iron ore remained stable at ¥792/ton, squeezing mill margins and prompting price hikes.

Export Demand: September steel exports fell 9.6% year-on-year to 8.7 million tons due to global trade tensions, though high-value products like ZAM coils saw 15% growth in Southeast Asian markets.

Policy Interventions: China’s “14th Five-Year Plan” prioritized green steel production, incentivizing mills to adopt electric arc furnaces (EAFs) and reduce carbon emissions, which could tighten supply in the medium term.

4. Industry Outlook

Short-Term Stability: September prices are expected to remain range-bound (±2%) as seasonal demand offsets oversupply risks.

Long-Term Risks: Persistent real estate sector weakness and global trade uncertainties could pressure prices in Q4 2025.

Opportunities: ZAM-coated steel and other high-performance alloys will dominate growth in renewable energy and automotive lightweighting sectors.